Bot for Polymarket paper strategy planner

Put a hypothetical buy through the fee and risk math before you look for automation. Compare your estimated outcome probability with the price you could fill at. This tool reads no account data and places no orders.

Available now: read-only paper model US and International fee paths No wallet or API key

Build one paper scenario

Use the price of the outcome share you would buy, including any spread you expect to cross. A maker result assumes the resting order actually fills.

How the paper math works

For a filled buy held to binary resolution, the wrong-outcome loss is shares × fill price + known fees + your extra costs. If the outcome wins, the modeled profit is shares minus that amount. Expected value uses your entered probability; it is not a forecast.

The risk check compares the whole wrong-outcome loss with your chosen percentage of the paper bankroll. A positive expected value can still exceed your loss cap.

What the model leaves out

  • Live prices, order book depth, partial fills, an unfilled maker order, and early sales.
  • Changing rules, market-specific fees, resolution risk, and legal or account eligibility.
  • Individual incentive payouts unless the US standard maker rebate applies to the modeled fill.

If you compare venues, the cross-venue fee calculator can help you examine a similar fill elsewhere. Check each market's rules before treating it as comparable.

Apply for product updates and early access

The paper planner and guides are available now. A hosted Polymarket bot with paper mode and risk controls is planned; joining the list does not create a trading account.